The MMA Betting Checklist

By Jason Rothman

Yesterday I finally got my hands on a copy of Seeking Wisdom: From Darwin to Munger by Peter Bevelin.  I say finally because it’s one of those books that has been on my radar for a year, but I just never took the time to order it.  After glancing through the book it is hard to imagine how it won’t make me a wiser, happier, and more successful person.  I can’t wait to read it!

One of the last sections of the book covers the power of checklists.  I am not sure where this appreciation for having a checklist comes from in the value investing world, but I have seen Munger talk about it, financial blogger Joshua Kennon, and now it appears again in this powerful book by Bevelin.  Seeing the importance of checklists brought up at the end of Seeking Wisdom inspired me to finally write down a checklist for MMA betting.

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Practical Bankroll Management for the MMA Betting Hobbyist

By Jason Rothman

“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

            -Benjamin Graham and David Dodd in Security Analysis

As you can infer from the title of this article, this bankroll management advice is geared towards the MMA betting hobbyist as opposed to the MMA betting professional.   A professional would be someone who makes all of their income from MMA betting and gambling, or someone whose primary income source is from MMA betting and other gambling sources.  The hobbyist is someone like myself and the majority of you reading this who take MMA betting seriously and do our best to make a profit from it.  But for us MMA betting is not our sole source of income or our primary source of income.  In my opinion, bankroll management strategies and goals differ depending on whether one is a professional gambler or a hobbyist with a separate primary income source.

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Hype, a Speculator’s Best Friend in MMA Betting!

By Jason Rothman

While the paths to victory approach is the most important skill an MMA bettor can have, understanding the hype behind a fight is a close second.  The paths to victory approach gives you the ability to predict how a fight will probably play out.  And it is the hype that creates the difference between your odds and the money line odds that makes a fight prediction profitable to bet on.  Hype throws the money line odds off, which provides profit opportunities.  The UFC is world class at creating hype.  As an MMA speculator, you must be aware of how the hype is affecting other MMA fans, the money line odds, and even how it is affecting you.

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The Paths to Victory Approach to MMA Betting

By Jason Rothman

The following is an excerpted chapter from my new book Betting on MMA.  The book can be purchased on Amazon as a paperback and as a kindle eBook.

The Paths to Victory approach is one of the most important aspects of MMA betting.  It is often criticized because of its simplicity, but the criticism is nonsense.  The power of the paths to victory approach is indeed in its simplicity, and its power is very real.  Reading this article and applying my Paths to Victory approach will make you a more profitable MMA bettor. Enjoy.

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Betting Odds Explained: How to convert the odds and handicap MMA fights!

By Jason Rothman

“He simply says, if a business is worth a dollar and I can buy it for 40 cents, something good may happen to me.  And he does it over and over and over again.”

            -Warren Buffett on fellow value investor Walter Schloss

The process of handicapping fights is simple.  The first step is to convert the money line odds into percentages.  The second step is to compare our prediction for the fight, our percentages, to the money line percentages.  And the third step is to consider whether we have a large enough margin of safety to place a bet.

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The Number One Mistake In MMA Betting

By Jason Rothman

“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only twenty slots in it so that you had twenty punches – representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime. And once you’d punched through the card, you couldn’t make any more investments at all. Under those rules, you’d really think carefully about what you did, and you’d be forced to load up on what you’d really thought about. So you’d do so much better.”

            -Warren Buffett

“As Jesse Livermore said, ‘The big money is not in the buying and selling… but in the waiting.’”

“Success means being very patient, but aggressive when it’s time.”

            -Charlie Munger

 

Part One, Estimated Read Time: 10 Minutes

Drum roll please… The number one MMA betting mistake that people make is betting on too many fights.  It is that simple.  There are several reasons why betting too often is and will probably always be the number one MMA betting mistake, and we will explore them in this article.  It all comes down to two main topics: the human nature of the sports bettor and the misguided incentives for many of the parties involved in MMA betting.  First let’s take a look at why betting too often is the number one mistake.  And then we will examine how the individual issues contribute to the overall problem.

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RMMAP 023: 2013 Summer Plans

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

Jason shares his plans for the podcast and gives some news about the book.  The Betting on MMA Kindle eBook now sells for $2.99 on Amazon.com!

Jason covers why there is not much dumb money in MMA these days and he goes over why he can’t wait for Anderson Silva vs Chris Weidman.  Jason also reads the iTunes comment of the week and talks about some upcoming fights that might be attractive betting opportunities.  And he wraps up the show with some great advice from Felix Dennis’ book How To Get Rich.

Please shop through the Amazon banner and leave a comment on iTunes.  It might get read as the iTunes comment of the week.  You can leave an iTunes comment here.

RMMAP 022: UFC 159 Recap

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

On this UFC 159 recap episode Jason talks about what happened at UFC 159 and the card overall. He covers the Kongo/Nelson and Jones/Sonnen fights in particular. He also looks ahead to what’s coming up in May. Go to BettingOnMMABook.com and shop through the Amazon banner!

Links:

RMMAP 021: UFC 159 Sonnen vs Jones Preview Show

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

Jason previews UFC 159.  Jason goes over the odds for all the fights and previews the main card fights and talks a lot about Jones vs Sonnen.  Enjoy the podcast and enjoy UFC 159!

Links:

RMMAP 020: Betting on MMA Audiobook Part 4 of 4

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

This episode is the final part of the four part audiobook version of Betting on MMA: Easy Money From the Toughest Sport.  You can get the paperback version on Amazon and the eBook version here.

We cover four great bonus articles from the blog and two case studies!

How can I quit?!?!  I’m already regretting my decision to end the show. Maybe I could just scale it back to one or two shows a month for a while. Would you guys be cool with that?  Sorry for being emo!

I’m the Randy Couture of podcasting, I just can’t retire!

The 4-Hour Work Week by Tim Ferris

Enjoy and thanks for listening! You can leave an Amazon customer review here. Thanks!

RMMAP 019: Betting on MMA Audiobook Part 3 of 4

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

This episode is the third of four parts of the audiobook version of Betting on MMA: Easy Money From the Toughest Sport.  You can get the paperback version on Amazon and the eBook version here.

We cover two examples of Big Game Hunting and two case studies!

And I bought a new microphone for the podcast!  Let me know how the audio is.

Enjoy and thanks for listening! You can leave an Amazon customer review here. Thanks!

RMMAP 018: Betting on MMA Audiobook Part 2 of 4

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

This episode is the second of four parts of the audiobook version of Betting on MMA: Easy Money From the Toughest Sport.  You can get the paperback version on Amazon and the eBook version here.

You will learn:

  • The paths to victory approach.
  • What the hype is and why it plays such a big role in MMA betting.
  • Some good tips and techniques for breaking down MMA fights.
  • Everything I know about how to predict MMA fights.

Enjoy and thanks for listening! You can leave an Amazon customer review here. Thanks!

If you have a betting opinion on every fight, then you’re the sucker!

By Jason Rothman

“The vast majority of stocks would not be compelling either way – so ignore them. Merrill Lynch had an opinion on every stock; Buffett did not. But when an investor had convection about a stock, he or she should also show courage – and buy a ton of it.”

           -Roger Lowenstein talking about Warren Buffett in his biography called Buffet: The Making of an American Capitalist.

When Warren Buffett looks at the stock market in search of investments, he ignores the vast majority of stocks, and you should do the same thing when you bet on MMA.  Most companies are priced correctly and someone who buys their stocks would not be getting any value out of his purchase.  And it is the same thing in MMA betting.  Most fights are priced correctly.  The general MMA fan base, also referred to as the market, can sometimes get very stupid and emotional, but most of the times Mr. Market can judge a fight in a rational and intelligent way.  And usually Mr. Market does this.  Usually Mr. Market is correct in his opinion about how an MMA fight will go (it’s not rocket science after all).  Only when Mr. Market gets very emotional, irrational, or just plain wrong about a fight will there be any value that can come from MMA betting.  And this does not happen often.

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RMMAP 017: Betting on MMA Audiobook Part 1 of 4

By Jason Rothman

Show Notes:

This episode is the first of four parts of the audiobook version of Betting on MMA: Easy Money From the Toughest Sport.  You can get the paperback version on Amazon and the eBook version here.

Items mentions in the show:

My practical bankroll management article.

The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life by Alice Schroeder

Casino the book and movie.

Audio Book of The Rothman MMA Podcast

By Jason Rothman

Betting on MMA: Easy Money From the Toughest Sport is my book about betting on MMA.  The book is currently available on Amazon as a paperback and I also sell an eBook version myself.  Now there is going to be an audio edition of the book and it is going to be free!  The audio book will come out over the next four Rothman MMA Podcast episodes.  The first episode will be out on Monday morning.

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